Calpreps Projections

We fired up the computer and played the final Friday night of the season and the first 2 rounds of the playoffs in the North. Here is what we got.

AAAAAA

1st Round: Italics is Home

Buford over Douglas Co

Carrollton over Habersham Cent.

Rome over Shiloh

Dacula over Alexander

Allatoona over Cambridge

Kell over Johns Creek

Creekview over Sprayberry

River Ridge over Pope

2nd Round

Dacula at Allatoona: Dacula by 1

Kell at Buford: Buford by 23

Creekview at Carrollton: Carrollton by 9

Rome at River Ridge: River Ridge by 1

Final Week Math

Here we go. We finally made it to the final week. Still a few spots up for grabs. My best effort to try and figure all this stuff out.

5AAAAAA

1 Carrollton 5-1

2 Rome 5-1

3 Douglas Co 4-2

4 Alexander 4-2

—–Playoffs—-

5 South Paulding 3-3

If Carrollton wins over Douglas Co: Carrollton wins Region title

If Douglas Co wins and Rome wins: Rome wins the Region

The 4 spot is still up for grabs this week between Alexander and South Paulding.

CalPreps Prediction: 1) Carrollton 2) Rome 3) Douglas Co 4) Alexander


7AAAAA

Is set. To the best of my knowledge Blessed Trinity will get credit for the Cartersville game.

1) Blessed Trinity

2) Cartersville

3) Calhoun

4) Hiram


7AAAA

Covid has taken a toll on this Region so it’s hard to figure out at this point. Word is Ridgeland is going to have to take a forfeit the last 2 weeks and Pickens will forfeit to Central if game not made up. These are the assumptions I use for this exercise.

1) Cedartown has clinched the Region Title

2) Central-Carroll assuming Ridgeland and Pickens forfeit, Heritage can still get the spot if they can beat Cedartown Friday.

If NW Whitfield beats Pickens:

3) NW Whitfield

4) Heritage

If Pickens beats NW:

There would be a 3 way tie at 2-3 (NW Whit, Heritage, Pickens) for the final 2 spots.

6AAA

Assumptions: LaFayette cancels this week vs North Murray

1) Rockmart is the lock here

If Adairsville beats LFO:

2) Adairsville, 3) North Murray 4) LaFayette

If LFO beats Adairsville:

2) North Murray 3) Adairsville 4) LaFayette

***Ringgold can still slide into the #4 spot if they upset Region leading Rockmart.

5AA

Well we have our 4 playoff teams the final order is up for grabs:

4 scenarios:

Haralson wins/ Heard wins:

1) Heard 2) Haralson 3) Callaway 4) Bremen

Haralson wins/Callaway wins:

1)Haralson 2) Callaway 3) Heard 4) Bremen

Bremen wins/Heard wins;

1) Heard Co 2) Other 3 tied at 2-2

Bremen wins/Callaway wins

1) Callaway 2) Heard 3) Bremen 4) Haralson Co

7AA

1) Fannin Co LOCK

2) Pepperell LOCK

3) Model

4) If Chattooga beats Model on Tuesday the Indians are in; If Chattooga loses Gordon Central get the 4 spot with a win over Model on Saturday; If Model sweeps this week Chattooga gets in at 4.

*** If Model goes 0-2 this week: 3) Chattooga 4) Gordon Central and the Blue Devils miss the playoffs.

6A Public

1) Bowdon : Region Champs

2) Gordon Lee : Lock

3) Winner of Mt. Zion vs BEST

4) Loser of Mt. Zion vs BEST

7A Private

Region Championship this Friday when Christian Heritage host North Cobb Christian.

3 spot locked for the Darlington Tigers

4 is winner of Mt. Paran vs Walker

Playoff Droughts

Still have a handful of teams that can win their way into the playoffs these final 2 Fridays. Some haven’t been to the postseason in several years. Here is a list of those that can win and get in and those that need a little help to end their playoff droughts.

Win and You’re In

Mt. Zion Eagles (1 year) : The Eagles had a 5 year playoff run , which included 3 Semifinal appearances , snapped last season. A win over Trion Friday night get the Eagles back in the playoffs.

Ringgold Tigers (1 year): Big turnaround for the Tigers in 2020. Win the last 2 and they are in. If they lose to Rockmart next week and LaFayette loses to North Murray the Tigers still slide in as high as the 3 seed.

Dade County Wolverines (4 years): Beat Gordon Central and Fannin and the Wolverines are in. Even if they go 1-1 they can still get in if Chattooga falls to Pepperell and Model.

Gordon Lee Trojans (7 years): One win over either Armuchee or Trion and the Trojans clinch a playoff spot. The best Gordon Lee team since 2002 11-2 quarterfinal team.

Needs Some Help

Gordon Central Warriors (7 years): The Warriors need to win out over Dade Co and Model and have Chattooga lose one of their last 2 games (Pepperell, Model)

Cass Colonels (13 years): The Colonels need some help. Woodland needs to beat Hiram tonight to force a 3 way tie and depending on the Region tiebreaker hopefully the Colonels would get in. The other option is beat Blessed Trinity tonight.

Woodland Wildcats (20 Years): The Wildcats need to win by 12+ tonight to have a shot at winning a 3 way tie with Cass and Hiram. The Wildcats would finish 4-3, their 1st season over .500 since 1999.

LaFayette Ramblers (50 years) The Ramblers are big Sonoraville Phoenix fans this week. If Ringgold loses their final 2 games (Sonoraville, Rockmart) the Ramblers would break a drought that has been in place since I was learning to walk.

Read: Playoff Outlook for 11/13

Read: Nov 13 Game Lines

Nov 13 Hot Takes


Rome Wolves travel to Douglas County with a home playoff game on the line.

No better place to spend Friday the 13th than at a high school football game. Are you looking for a game to watch? Here are some of the best in our Area for this week.

#5 Cartersville Purple Hurricanes at #6 Calhoun Yellow Jackets: Two of the most storied teams in our area go head to head as region foes in 2020. The winner will host a playoff game the day after Thanksgiving and the loser will be on the road.


Central-Carrollton Lions at #5 Cedartown Bulldogs: 7AAAA Region title is on the line Friday night in Cedartown. The Bulldogs have been one of the hottest teams in NWGA over the last month but they will have their hands full with the States leading rusher Narada Levett.


North Murray Mountaineers at Adairsville Tigers: Winner finishes 2nd in 6AAA and hosts a playoff game Nov 27th. Not many players playing better than Mountaineer senior Dante Tidwell right now. The Tigers will have to regroup after last weeks disappointing loss to Region leading Rockmart.


#11 Rome Wolves at #13 Douglas Co Tigers: Winner will host a playoff game. The Wolves have found a little momentum on offense the last 3 weeks behind highly touted freshman QB Reece Fountain. They will have to contend with a couple of 4 Star DEs for the Tigers, seniors Jonathan Jefferson (UGA) and Joshua Robinson (GA Tech).


A couple games in 7AA with playoff implications: Coosa at Fannin Co: The Rebels are 1 win away from clinching the Region title.

Gordon Central at Dade Co: Playoff elimination game in Trenton. Winner still has hopes of sneaking into the 4 spot in the Region. Both teams fan base will be cheering hard for the Pepperell Dragons Friday night as they host Chattooga. A win would clinch the 4 spot for the Indians.

Notes:

* LaFayette Rambler fans are cheering hard this week for Sonoraville. A win by Ringgold likely eliminates them from playoff contention.

* Rockmart is the 6AAA Region Champs with the cancelation of this weeks Lafayette game.

* Heritage and Pickens square off this week. Winner takes control of their postseason destiny.

* The Bowdon Red Devils can wrap up the 6A Public title with a win over BEST Friday night.

Check out:

This Weeks Game Lines

Playoff Math for 11/13

5AA Scenarios

5AA Playoffs

We take a look at the 16 possible playoff scenarios in Region 5AA. The 1st 2 teams in each scenario is the winners from 11/13, the next 2 the 11/20 winners.

This Week: Bremen at Heard Co; Callaway at Temple (Sat)

Next Week: Haralson at Bremen; Heard Co at Callaway


*Scenario 1) Bremen/Callaway; Haralson/Heard Co

Champ: Haralson Out: Temple


*Scenario 2) Bremen/Callaway; Haralson/Callaway

Champ: Haralson Out: Heard Co


*Scenario 3) Bremen/Callaway; Bremen/Heard Co

Champ: Bremen Out: Temple


*Scenario 4) Bremen/Callaway; Bremen/Callaway

Champ: Callaway Out: Temple


*Scenario 5) Bremen/Temple; Haralson/Heard Co

Champ: Haralson Out: Callaway


*Scenario 6) Bremen/Temple; Haralson/Callaway

Champ: Haralson Out: Heard Co


*Scenario 7) Bremen/Temple; Bremen/Heard Co

Champ: Bremen Out: Callaway


*Scenario 8) Bremen/Temple; Bremen/Callaway

Champ: Bremen Out: Heard Co


*Scenario 9) Heard Co/Callaway; Bremen/Heard Co

Champ: Heard Co Out: Temple


*Scenario 10) Heard Co/Callaway; Haralson/Heard

Champ: Heard Co Out: Temple


*Scenario 11) Heard/Callaway; Haralson/Callaway

Champ: Haralson Co Out: Temple


*Scenario 12) Heard/Callaway; Bremen/Callaway

Champ: Callaway Out: Temple


*Scenario 13) Heard/Temple; Haralson/Heard

Champ: Heard Co Out: Bremen


*Scenario 14) Heard/Temple; Haralson/Callaway

Champ: Haralson Co Out Bremen


*Scenario 15) Heard/Temple; Bremen/Heard Co

Champ: Heard Co Out Callaway


*Scenario 16) Heard/Temple; Bremen/Callaway

5 way Tie at 2-2

Nov 13 Game Lines

How does Calpreps see things going this week:

Class A Private:

Darlington over Walker by 35

NCC over Mt. Paran by 35+

Class A Public:

Bowdon over BEST by 14

Gordon Lee over Armuchee by 35+

AA

Callaway over Temple by 11

Bremen over Heard Co by 2

Dade over GCentral by 1

Fannin over Coosa by 35+

Pepperell over Chattooga by 30

AAA

Adairsville by 4 over North Murray

LFO by 2 over Murray Co

Ringgold by 12 over Sonoraville

AAAA

Cedartown by 18 Central Carroll

Heritage by 14 over Pickens Co

NW Whitfield by 18 over Ridgeland

AAAAA

Blessed Trinity by 35+ over Cass

Cartersville by 7 over Calhoun

Woodland by 1 over Hiram

AAAAAA

Carrollton by 9 over Alexander

Dalton by 14 over Paulding

Douglas Co by 5 over Rome

S. Paulding by 8 over E. Paulding

Playoff Math for 11.8.20

Monday Shout Outs

North Murray’s Dante Tidwell had 5 TDs in a win over Murray Co
Photo Credit: Twitter

Team and individual performances that caught our eye this past week in NWGA.

Individuals

Dante Tidwell (North Murray): The senior RB/DB had 5 TDs and an INT in the Mountaineers win over rival Murray Co.

Mason Parker (Ringgold): The junior QB accounted for 235 yards and 3 TDs for the Tigers in their Saturday win over Coahulla Creek.

JJ House (Armuchee): 8 catches for 147 yards and 2 TDs vs Trion

Robert McNeal (Bowdon): The sophomore QB accounted 314 total yards and 3 TDs in the Red Devils win over rival Mt. Zion.

Rob Brown (Trion): The junior RB had 16 carries for 214 yds and 4 TDs in Fridays win over Armuchee.

Seth Reece (Fannin Co): The junior RB scored 3 TDs, all in the 3rd Q, in a 37-7 win at Chattooga.

Christian Lewis (Calhoun): The Yellow Jacket junior QB had 3 TDs all in the 1st half vs region foe Cass.

Jerrian Hames (Calhoun): The senior eclipsed the 1000 yard mark for the 2nd consecutive season. He had 14 carries for 165 and 2 TDs Friday vs Cass, all in the 1st half.

Reece Fountain (Rome) : The freshman signal caller for the Wolves was 16-23 for 233 and 3 TDs in a win over Alexander.

Jaxon Thomas (Coosa): The senior RB/LB had 20 carries for 105 yards TD and 10+ tackles in win over Dade Co.

Billy Settlemoir (Coosa): Scored 2 TDs and had several key sacks for the Eagles.

Teams:

Rockmart Yellow Jackets: The Yellow Jackets are poised to win their 4th Region Title in a row after their 45-7 win over Adairsville.

Fannin Co Rebels: The Rebels 37-7 win over Chattooga puts them a win over Coosa or Dade away from the 7AA Title.

Bremen Blue Devils: Scored with 6 seconds left and converted the 2 point conversion to beat Temple 15-14 in the highly contested 5AA race.

Sonoraville Phoenix: Slow start to 2020 for the Phoenix but they played the spoiler Friday night in a big comeback win over LaFayette. Potentially knocking the Ramblers from the playoffs.

Pickens Dragons: After a 2 week Covid layoff the Dragons beat Ridgeland 27-18 to keep their 7AAAA playoff hopes alive.

Playoff Math (11/8)

We take a look at each Region in NwGa as we enter the final 2 weeks of the season. Still a few Region champions and playoff spots left to determine.

5-AAAAAA

#`1 Carrollton: Not exactly a cake walk left for the Trojans. They still have Alexander and Douglas Co left on the schedule and if Douglas Co can get by Rome this Friday it could set up a potential Region Championship game Nov 20th when Carrollton hosts Douglas County.

#2 and #3: Rome and Douglas Co: This two matchup this Friday at Douglas Co. The winner is most likely to host a playoff game Nov 27 the loser the 3 spot and will travel to Dacula to open the playoffs.

#4 Alexander: #4 spot in this region is known as the Buford Sweepstakes, because this is where they will travel week 1.

Dark Horse: South Paulding: If South Paulding can get by East Paulding this Friday , which will not be an easy task as the Raiders are playing good football right now, it would set up at Nov 20th game at Alexander for the 4 spot.

6-AAAAA

Villa Rica: Big game this Friday for the Wildcats when they host New Manchester. If Villa Rica can win their last 2 games and New Manchester beats Chapel Hill week 10 the Wildcats would be Region Champs and host Hiram week 1. The most likely scenario is #2 spot hosting the loser of Calhoun vs Cartersville in Round 1.

7-AAAAA

#1 Blessed Trinity: Word on the street is Cartersville will forfeit the game with BT that they had to cancel due to Covid protocol. If this is truly the case than BT will get the #1 spot with their win over Calhoun.

#2 and #3: Cartersville vs Calhoun: If the above is true, the winner of Friday nights game in Calhoun will get the 2 spot and the loser the 3.

#4 Hiram: The 4 spot is the Hornets to win. If they can beat Woodland Friday night, barring upsets by Cass and Woodland over Blessed Trinity down the stretch, the Hornets would clinch the final playoff spot. If Woodland wins Friday we would have a 3 way tie between Hiram,Woodland and Cass. Not sure about the tiebreak criteria but I will find out this week.

7AAAA

#1 Cedartown or Central Carrollton: The Cedartown Bulldogs are 2 TD favorites this Friday when they host the Lions. The winner is the likely Region Champion for 2020.

#2 Barring any upsets these final 2 weeks the loser of the above game will get the two spot and host a playoff game on Nov 27th.

#3 Northwest Whitfield: The Bruins have already played Cedartown and Central. If they win out they would get the 3 spot.

#4 Heritage vs Pickens winner: The winner of this game is most likely #4 seed barring any upsets these final 2 weeks.

Dark Horse: Ridgeland- The Panthers would have to run the table vs NW Whitfield and Central-Carrollton and cheer hard for Heritage Friday night to beat Pickens since Ridgeland holds the head to head tiebreaker over the Generals.

6AAA

#1 Rockmart Yellow Jackets: Still votes left to count but us here at NwGaFootball are calling this one for the Jackets.

#2 North Murray at Adairsville winner: Big game this Friday in Adairsville as these two square off with a home playoff game on the line. The Mountaineers seem to be clicking right now and Adairsville will have to shake off a tough loss to Rockmart last Friday night.

#3 North Murray or Ringgold: If North Murray loses the above game they would get the nod with the tie break win over Ringgold. If Adairsville loses and Ringgold beats Sonoraville , the Tigers would get the nod thanks to their win over the Tigers 2 weeks ago.

#4 Ringgold or Adairsville: See above #3 for details.

Dark Horse: LaFayette- the sentimental favorite Ramblers took a big hit to their playoff chances Friday losing to Sonoraville. They need Sonoraville to repeat that performance this Friday when the Phoenix hosts Ringgold. The Ramblers can still play their way in by upsetting either North Murray or Rockmart the final two weeks.

7AAA

The Gilmer Bobcats loss to West Hall Friday ended their playoff hopes.

5AA

Heard County’s upset shook everything up in 5AA. Still a lot to decide in these last two weeks but here is how it stands now.

#1 Callaway: They travel to Haralson Co on Tuesday and a win by the Cavs would put them in a good spot to win the Region Title.

#2 Bremen is in the best position for this spot as they have Heard and Haralson still left on their schedule. Win out and they host a playoff game Nov 27.

#3 Heard County: Holds tie break over Haralson Co. If the Braves win out they can still capture the Region Title.

#4 Haralson Co: The Rebels can move back up the chart with a win over Callaway on Tuesday. If not they face a game with Bremen that could decide the 2 and 4 spot.

Dark Horse: Temple- The Tigers are 2 OTs and a last second TD away from being 3-0 in the Region. Sitting a 1-2 they need some help. They are real big Bremen fans Friday night. A win by Heard over Bremen will make it tough for the Tigers.

7AA

#1 Fannin Co: A win over Coosa Friday and the Rebels clinch the 7AA Title.

#2 Pepperell: Win out and the Dragons host a playoff game Nov 27th.

#3 Model: Wins over Chattooga and Gordon Central the final 2 weeks would give the Blue Devils the #3 spot.

#4) Dade Co/Chattooga/Gordon Central: If Dade beats Gordon Central Friday and Chattooga loses to Model and Pepperell the Wolverines are in at 4.

Chattooga needs to win 1 game these final 2 weeks to clinch.

Gordon Central needs to beat Dade Friday and Model next week and have Chattooga lose to Model and Pepperell to slide in at #4.

6A Public

#1 Bowdon

#2 Gordon Lee

#3 BEST

#4 Trion vs Mt Zion winner this Friday night.

6A Private

#1 Christian Heritage vs North Cobb Christian winner. The loser gets the 2 seed.

#3 Darlington

#4 Mt. Paran vs Walker winner

Top 5 Games

The Top 5 games in NwGa for the Week of Nov 6th. Many with playoff and Region title implications.

#5) Pepperell at Model:

The Dragons and the Blue Devils are tied with Chattooga at 2-1 for the #2 spot in 7AA. The Regions top 2 RBs, Model’s Joseph Wallace (930 yds) and Pepperell’s sophomore back DJ Rogers (831 yds) square off in this one.

#4) Ridgeland at Pickens:

Ready for some Saturday football? This rescheduled game is being played at 5:30pm Saturday afternoon in Jasper.

The winner here moves into the top 4 in Region 7AAAA the loser on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in.

#3) Temple at Bremen:

With Heard County’s upset of Haralson County this game took on more importance.

Bremen played Region leading Callaway tough in the opener last week and Temple is coming off back to back overtime games verse Heard and Haralson in which they managed to go 1-1.

The loser of this game will be the current team in the dreaded 5 spot in the highly competitive 5 team 5AA.

#2) Alexander at Rome:

The Wolves are in control of their fate as far as hosting a playoff game in late November. A sweep of Douglas Co and Alexander would give them the #2 spot in Region 5-AAAAAA.

The loser of this game more than likely travels to top ranked Buford for the opening round of the playoffs.

#1) Rockmart at Adairsville:

Top spot in 6AAA is on the line when the Yellow Jackets and Tigers square off in Adairsville.

Rockmart is looking for their 4th consecutive Region title.

The Tigers have the talent to make a game out of this one.


Playoff Projections: https://nwgafootball.us/calprep-projections/

NWGA Region Projections: https://nwgafootball.us/playoff-outlook-10-31/

Thursday Night Football

A couple of important games involving NWGA teams tonight. We take a look at what they mean to each one in their quest for the postseason.

#14 Gordon Lee Trojans at BEST Academy Eagles:

The 6-1 (1-1) Trojans make the long trip to Atlanta to face the 3-2 (2-0) Eagles in an important 6A Public matchup.

If Gordon Lee wins: The Trojans would move to 2-1 in region play and with 2 games remaining in which they will be heavily favored , Armuchee and Trion, Gordon Lee would most likely host a playoff game in the 1st Round. BEST would also fall to 2-1 in the region but have a tough schedule remaining, traveling to region leading Bowdon and home verse Mt. Zion. Win out and they could force a potential 3 way tie for the Region Title.

If BEST wins: BEST would go to 3-0 in the region (counting the Covid forfeit win over Armuchee) and set up a Region Title game next Friday at Bowdon, assuming the Red Devils can get by Mt. Zion tomorrow night. Gordon Lee would drop to 1-2 in the region and most likely would end up the 3rd seed for the playoffs, barring any big upsets these final 2 weeks.

NWGAFootball Take: This game is going to be won at the line of scrimmage. BEST has some size up front and could pose a challenge for the high scoring Trojan run game, led by senior RB Cade Peterson who has already eclipsed the 1000 yd mark for the season.

Calpreps has Gordon Lee by 8. Sounds about right if the Trojans aren’t affected by the long bus ride and the “newness” of playing on Thursday night in the big city.

Heard County 4-3 (0-1) at #5 Haralson County 6-0 (1-0);

Week 2 of the 5AA playoff round robin. Heard had last week off after losing 2 weeks ago to Temple in overtime. Haralson opened their season last week with a dramatic 31-23 3ot win over the same Temple Tigers.

If Haralson County wins: The Rebels would move to 2-0, clinching a playoff spot, and setting up a potential Region title game Tuesday when they host #3 Callaway in a make up game from 2 weeks ago. Heard County would fall to 0-2 in the region and would be in a must win situation to finish the season with the most likely scenario being a game for the #4 spot next week at home vs Bremen.

If Heard County wins: Got to get my abacus out for this because things could get interesting in 5AA. Heard and Haralson would both go to 1-1 in the region and the loser of the Temple at Bremen game Friday would be the current odd man out.

NwGaFootball Take: Calpreps has the Rebels as 19pt favorites but on paper these guys look evenly matched. Both played Temple even, Heard actually jumped out to a big lead on the Tigers early. The Braves have the athletes to compete they just have to put 4 solid quarters together tonight and avoid turnovers. Haralson County junior QB Clay Hyatt got it rolling last week with over 200 yards rushing and 4 TDs. The combo of Hyatt and Marc Harris is hard to stop for 48 mins and if they get the lead and start controlling the clock it might be over. I like Haralson County in a much closer game than 19 points. Maybe 4 OTs this week?